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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing activity fell to a contraction level of -4 in December with virtually every component measure turning negative while prices paid for raw materials increased notably to 28.

It's important to note that although this data-set has a history that only runs as far back as mid-2001, the composite index never fell below 10 during the "recovery" that followed the tech-wreck of the early aughts.

Today, we see the composite index not only remaining depressed but actually turning notably negative, clearly indicating the internal weakness of our current economic expansion and possibly presenting a strong signal of recession to come.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that manufacturing activity worsened slightly with the current general business activity index declining to a contraction level of -3 while the future general business activity index increased to 10.3.

These results are coming, more or less, inline with the other regional manufacturing survey all indicating that business activity has slowed sharply in 2011 and may possibly indicate recession is upon us.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released their Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December showing that the composite index, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity, improved 3 points to a weak level of 3.

The most notable component measures also showed similar results with the new orders improving to 7, shipments increasing to 3 and backlog of orders climbing to a weak 1.

The following chart plots the composite index with the red line marking a level of 0, or the threshold between increasing and declining activity.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.

Today’s report showed a notable improvement for both current and future assessments of manufacturing activity with the current activity index climbing to 9.53 while future activity jumped to just 52.33.

Current prices paid increased to 24.42 while current new orders improved 5.1 and assessments of future new orders improved to 54.65.

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity improved in November with assessments of many measures increasing.

At 52.7 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) increased 3.74% since October but remained 9.45% below the level seen a year earlier.

Some respondents indicated that business in improving but orders remain weak:

"Business still holding its own. Some growth in margin now that some of the raw materials prices have abated. Oil is pushing $100 so that has not been favorable." (Chemical Products)

"Orders for the remaining two months have increased after an extended 'summer dip' in sales overall. We expect to finish the year approximately 10 percent above 2010." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

"Seeing a slight slowdown in orders; could be related to the holidays." (Primary Metals)

"Oil exploration seems to be really picking up. Government is permitting again, so business is the busiest we've ever seen." (Computer & Electronic Products)

"The EPS ruling about higher fees for coal-generated electricity can have a huge, negative impact on our business if implemented in January 2012. We are at the peak of our seasonal demand push." (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that manufacturing activity improved slightly but remained weak with the current general business activity index increasing to a weak expansion level of 3.2 while the future general business activity index declined to 9.7.

These results are coming, more or less, inline with the other regional manufacturing survey all indicating that business activity has slowed sharply in 2011 and may possibly indicate recession is upon us.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that manufacturing activity continued to indicate weakness with the current general business activity index improving to a weak expansion level of 2.3 while the future general business activity index rising to 14.70.

These results are coming, more or less, inline with the other regional manufacturing survey all indicating that business activity has slowed sharply in 2011 and may possibly indicate recession is upon us.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion remained at a near-contraction level of 8 since last month while the employee index remained flat at 12 and the prices paid for raw materials declined to 24.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion remained at a near-contraction level of 6 since last month while the employee index improved slightly to 12 and the prices paid for raw materials increased to 30.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that manufacturing activity continued to slow with the current general business activity index declining to weaker contraction level of -14.4 while the future general business activity index weakened to -1.5.

These results are coming, more or less, inline with the other regional manufacturing survey all indicating that business activity has slowed sharply in 2011 and may possibly indicate recession is upon us.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that manufacturing activity continued to slow with current production declining to a weak expansion of 1.1 while new orders turned down to a weak expansion 4.8.



Most importantly, general business activity declined to a contraction level of -11.4, the lowest level seen since September of 2010.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released their Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July showing that the composite index, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity, fell 4 points to a weak level of -1.

The most notable component measures also showed similar poor results with the new orders dropping 5 points to -5, shipments remaining at -1 and backlog of orders declined 7 points to -18.

The following chart plots the composite index with the red line marking a level of 0, or the threshold between increasing and declining activity.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion bounced back notably from last months weak reading rising to 14 from a level of 1 a month earlier while the employee index increased to 17 and the prices paid for raw materials increased to 16.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released their Survey of Manufacturing Activity showing that the composite index, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity, fell 16 points to a weak level of -6.

The most notable component measures also showed similar poor results with the new orders dropping 25 points to -15, shipments declined 19 points to -13 and backlog of orders declined 20 points to -19.

The following chart plots the composite index with the red line marking a level of 0, or the threshold between increasing and declining activity.