HI-TRANSFER

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for January showing that pending home sales improved with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 2% since December while increasing 8% above the level seen in January 2011.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that today's results indicates "stabilization" for prices and increased activity for the year.

“Given more favorable housing market conditions, the trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year. With a sustained downtrend in unsold inventory, this would bring about a broad price stabilization or even modest national price growth, of course with local variations.”

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December showing that home sales slowed with the seasonally adjusted national index dropping 3.5% since November while increasing 5.57% above the level seen in December 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that the rice in contract activity still remains high compared with the past few years and that homebuyers are persistent even in light of notable contract failures.

"Even with a modest decline, the preceding two months of contract activity are the highest in the past four years outside of the homebuyer tax credit period, ... Contract failures remain an issue, reported by one-third of Realtors® over the past few months, but home buyers are not giving up."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November showing that home sales increased with the seasonally adjusted national index jumping a notable 7.3% since October and increasing 5.93% above the level seen in November 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that the rice in contract activity should portend an equivalent rise to existing home sales though purchase failures have been running unusually high.

"Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines, but contract failures have been running unusually high... November is doing reasonably well in comparison with the past year. The sustained rise in contract activity suggests that closed existing-home sales, which are the important final economic impact figures, should continue to improve in the months ahead,..."

Also, it's important to note that the NAR reports that the pending home sales numbers were apparently not affected by the recent and dramatic existing home sales benchmark revisions.

"Pending home sales are not affected by the recently published rebenchmarking of existing-home sales because the index uses a different methodology based directly on contract signings, and is adjusted for seasonality."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for October showing that home sales increased with the seasonally adjusted national index jumping a notable 10.41% since September and increasing 9.15% above the level seen in October 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun hopes that today's numbers indicate that the buyers are coming back to the market.

"Home sales have been plodding along at a sub-par level while interest rates are hovering at record lows and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who normally would have entered the market in recent years. We hope this is indicates more buyers are taking advantage of the excellent affordability conditions..."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for September showing that home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index dropping a notable 4.6% since August but increasing 6.4% above the level seen in September 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that home buyers were sidelined by weak confidence in the economy and confusing policy coming out of the Fed while the most likely explanation for the latest round of weak results is that buyers simply see that prices are headed lower.... Who in this economy would leverage up significant debt to buy an asset that is clearly still declining in value?

"A combination of weak consumer confidence and continuing tight lending criteria held back home buyers, even though the private sector added nearly 2 million net new jobs in the past 12 months ... America’s monetary policy is contradictory and confusing, where some consumers with the best financial capacity and top-notch credit scores pay higher mortgage interest rates ... The Federal Reserve evidently has been attempting to lower mortgage rates, yet more consumers are faced with taking out jumbo loans that carry higher interest rates. ... Just leaving excessive cash to sit in banks and not work into the economy is a drag on the overall recovery ... We need a comprehensive approach to address housing issues – not additional impediments."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for August showing home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index dropping 1.2% since July but increasing 7.7% above the level seen in August 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that the weather played a part regionally while acknowledging that sales have been soft overall.

"The biggest monthly decline was in the Northeast, which was significantly disrupted by Hurricane Irene in the closing weekend of August ... But broadly speaking, contract signing activity has been holding in a narrow range for many months."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for July showing home sales declined with the seasonally adjusted national index dropping 1.3% since June but increasing 14.4% above the level seen in July 2010.



Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that conditions for buying should improve given that buyers can use real estate as an inflation hedge... only catch, that's assuming that home prices stop deflating! In both nominal and real terms home prices are still falling considerably.



"The underlying factors for improving sales are developing, such as rising rents, record high affordability conditions and investors buying real estate as a future inflation hedge. It is now a question of lending standards and consumers having the necessary confidence to enter the market."



The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for June showing home sales increased with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 2.36% since May and increasing 19.76% above the level seen in June 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun suggests that it would be best for housing for the economy to return to normal while adding that the Feds should not "rock the boat" in Washington.

"The best way to ensure a more solid recovery in housing is to simply return to normal, sound credit standards so more creditworthy home buyers can get a mortgage ... Washington also should not rock the boat with policy changes that would negatively impact affordable credit or otherwise increase the cost of buying or owning a home,"


The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for May showing home sales increased with the seasonally adjusted national index jumping 8.2% since April and increasing 13.41% above the level seen in May 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is again dusting off the old "turnaround is on its way" jargon while he notes that some markets are seeing a notable pickup in contract signings.

"Some markets have made a rapid turnaround, going from soft activity to contract signings rising by more than 30 percent from a year ago, including areas such as Hartford, Conn.; Indianapolis; Minneapolis; Houston; and Seattle."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for April showing home sales declined dramatically with the seasonally adjusted national index slumping a whopping 11.6% since March and falling an exceptional 26.5% below the level seen in April 2010, the largest year-over-year decline seen in the wake of the housing collapse.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun sounds a more somber tone while, more or less, recounting a reality that can no longer be whitewashed or avoided... housing has double dipped.

"The pullback in contract signings is disappointing and implies a slower than expected market recovery in upcoming months, ... The economy hit a soft patch in April from sharply rising oil prices, widespread severe weather with the heaviest precipitation in 20 years, and a sudden rise in unemployment claims."

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing home sales increasing with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 5.1% since February while remaining 11.4% below the level seen in March 2010.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun continues to talk of market recovery while again griping about tight lending standards.

"Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own, ... The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards."

Looking at the confluence of truly hideous trends currently playing out for housing it's no wonder the NAR is grasping for any positive number but the writing is on the wall... housing is now within a notable post-government manipulated second dip.

The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).